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Showing posts from July, 2022

The market always erupts in despair, develops in hesitation, ends in a carnival

July 31, 2022

The market always erupts in despair, develops in hesitation, ends in a carnival For market expectations, the most important thing is to observe rather than participate easily. Only the emergence of extreme states has real dynamic trading value. The extreme state often comes from the high degree of unity of market consensus. As the saying goes, the market always erupts in despair, develops in hesitation, ends in a carnival, and starts again and again. The so-called despair and carnival is actually a time when market sentiment and expectations are highly unified, while hesitation is a stage when market differences are more intense. If the essence of expectation is "voting with money", then highly consistent expectation means that no more money will be converted into this camp, and there will be no greater force to push it forward. The collapse of this price and the collapse of the consensus alliance will only be a matter of time. In short, pay attention to those situations th...

Set a price for your time

July 31, 2022

Set a price for your time Most people waste their time on short-term thinking and useless heavy work. Buffett will use one year to judge, and then one day to take action. His actions in one day can affect the future decades. Set a price for your time and calculate the value of time with your hourly salary. If the time saved by spending money is more valuable, spend money and don't hesitate. If you want to really make money, you must first believe that you are very valuable.

A primary goal in life should be to control your time

July 30, 2022

A primary goal in life should be to control your time The ideal job is to use leverage. In this operating mode, you can control your time and be responsible for your output. If you bring a magical turnaround to the enterprise by providing excellent solutions, you will get money in return. In particular, if others don't know how you do it, they must constantly pay you to continue to provide this product or service. And the reason why you can do this is because of your obsession, skills, or talents. If you have the expertise, a sense of responsibility, and know how to use leverage, the financial return provided by society will match your value. At this time, you can save more time and become super efficient. You don't need to hold a meeting for the sake of meeting, you don't need to try to express yourself, and you don't need to reflect your workload through reporting materials - you just need to focus on the work itself. Only pay attention to the work itself, and the ef...

In investment, the judgment and firm execution of this kind of large cycle are very critical

July 29, 2022

In investment, the judgment and firm execution of this kind of large cycle are very critical . Hesitation when decisions need to be made and cleverness when there is no need to use more brains are the enemies of excellent investment results. Firmly believe that this cyclical trajectory of fluctuations and recovery gradually increases the strength to enter the market when it is cheap enough, gradually reduces the position in the market at the time of obvious overestimation or incomprehensible valuation, and firmly implements this simple strategy. No matter how wonderful and imaginative the current market is, remember that all the feasts will end at the end of the day. No matter how sad and desperate the current market is, we should believe that once the deviation between value and price reaches an extreme level, it will inevitably return. Don't try hard to predict what will happen next, and don't try to wait for someone to give you a definite signal of action. Just simply remem...

A god-given opportunity for investment.

July 29, 2022

A god-given opportunity for investment From the perspective of capital, the rise of any stock depends on money to "buy". This simple truth tells us that when all (or a large proportion) of "money" has indeed entered the stock market and completed the substantial pull on the stock price, it must face the directional failure caused by insufficient buying funds. Its negative side also tells us that when the stock market is generally ignored and disliked by social funds, it is often a god-given opportunity for investment.

Investment is not a flat race, but a vertical climb.

July 28, 2022

Investment is not a flat race, but a vertical climb. Being faster than others does not mean success, because a slip and fall can erase all achievements. For a peak with almost no end, leading means little. The most important thing is to ensure that every action conforms to safety specifications and avoids dangerous lines and adverse environments. It's the stupidest way to forget the cliff under your feet in order to win the periodic ranking.

You always have three choices

July 27, 2022

In life, no matter what situation you face, you have three choices: change the status quo, accept the status quo, and escape the status quo.

Salvation depends on oneself.

July 27, 2022

Salvation depends on oneself. Doctors can't keep you healthy. Nutritionists can't make you slim. The teacher can't make you smart. Zen master can't calm you down. Wise men cannot make you rich. The coach can't make you strong. In the end, you must take the responsibility for yourself. Salvation depends on oneself.

Whether this business needs to be smart once or always

July 26, 2022

Whether this business needs to be smart once or always Buffett said that when buying enterprises, he would evaluate "whether this business needs to be smart once or always". I think investment also faces such problems. Different investment tendencies may lead to some ways that only need to be smart a few times, while others must be smart soon. I like those decisions that can be smart enough to manage for a long time at one time. It not only brings better returns but also avoids a lot of trouble and pressure. And the future dominant enterprises just embody apparent advantages in this regard.

If you choose an easy way now, your future will become more difficult.

July 24, 2022

If you choose an easy way now, your future will become more difficult. Everything in life is the same. If you are willing to make short-term sacrifices, you will get long-term benefits. My fitness coach always said, "if you choose a simple mode, life will become more and more difficult; if you choose a difficult mode, life will become simpler and simpler." Now choose a difficult diet mode, that is, although you want to eat junk food, but resist eating, and choose a difficult exercise mode, not afraid of hard work. Over time, your life will become easier and easier. You won't get sick easily, and you won't be unhealthy. This is true of the cultivation of values, saving for a rainy day, and the handling of interpersonal relationships. If you choose an easy way now, your future will become more difficult.

How to build skills to get happiness?

July 24, 2022

How to build skills to get happiness? You can get it by forming good habits. Not drinking alcohol or eating sugar can improve emotional stability, and staying away from social media (Facebook, Snapchat, and Twitter) can also improve emotional stability. Playing video games will bring short-term happiness (I was once obsessed with games), but it will destroy long-term happiness. Drinking coffee also belongs to exchanging long-term health for short-term excitement. These external factors beyond your control will stimulate the secretion of dopamine in your body. Once the stimulating factors disappear, the dopamine level will drop. In essence, the process of life is to replace those bad habits formed inadvertently with well-developed good habits and strive to become a happier person. Your happiness index ultimately depends on your habits and the people you spend the most time with. Let's start with habits. When we were babies, we didn't have any habits. Later, we learned what we c...

If you struggle with a difficult decision, you should choose a more painful path in the short term.

July 22, 2022

If you struggle with a difficult decision, you should choose a more painful path in the short term A simple life experience: if you struggle with a difficult decision, you should choose a more painful path in the short term. If you face two choices, the pros and cons account for 50% each, and you should choose a more difficult and painful path in the short term. In essence, one of the two paths will cause short-term pain, while the other will cause longer-term pain in the future. In order to avoid contradictions, the brain will instinctively choose to get rid of short-term pain. The premise is that the two options have equal advantages and disadvantages, but if one path brings short-term pain, it will also bring long-term benefits. According to the compound interest effect, long-term income is what you want. The brain will overestimate short-term happiness and try to avoid short-term pain. Therefore, you must self-training, take the initiative to meet short-term pain, and suppress...

What is your definition of retirement?

July 21, 2022

What is your definition of retirement? Retirement is not to sacrifice today for the imagined tomorrow. When you can live in the present and spend every day with your heart full, you will reach the state of retirement. How to reach retirement status? The first way is to save money. As long as you save enough, passive income (without moving a finger) can meet your expenses. The second method is to reduce the cost to zero - becoming a monk. The third way is to do what you love and enjoy it completely. It doesn't matter whether you have money or not. Therefore, there are many ways to achieve retirement status.

The compound interest effect is not limited to the field of capital

July 20, 2022

The compound interest effect is not limited to the field of capital "All the rewards in life, whether wealth, interpersonal relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest." How to judge whether you have obtained compound interest? The concept of compound interest is very rich in connotation. The concept of compound interest comes from capital, but it is more than that. The compound interest effect is not limited to the field of capital. The compound interest effect in business relations is very important. Looking at the top roles in society, why can some people serve as CEOs of listed companies or manage billions of dollars? This stems from others' trust in them. The reason why they can be trusted is that their interpersonal relationships and careers have a compound interest effect. They devote themselves to the cause in an extremely intuitive and responsible way and prove their integrity and high integrity to the world. There is also a compound interest effect...

What is the difference between wealth and money?

July 20, 2022

What is the difference between wealth and money? Money is the way we transfer wealth. Money is the credit symbol of society and has the ability to call others' time. If I do my job well and create value for society, society will say to me, "thank you, because of the work you have done in the past, we owe you something in the future. This is an IOU, which we can call money." What you really want is wealth. Wealth is an asset that can help you make money when you sleep. Wealth is a factory and robot that can produce. Wealth is a computer program that serves customers day and night. Wealth can also be money invested in other assets or businesses in the bank. Even houses can become a kind of wealth because houses can be rented and bring rental income. However, compared with engaging in commercial activities, the production efficiency of this land use mode is lower. Therefore, my definition of wealth is the enterprises and assets that can bring income while sleeping.

Financial analysis ability is a foundation and a common language in the investment world

July 19, 2022

Financial analysis ability is a foundation and a common language in the investment world Although I never thought that financial analysis ability is the core ability of an investor, and I also admit that accounting statements do have a lot of room to whitewash, adjust, and even falsify, it would be a big mistake to think that financial statements are useless just because of these. The ability of financial analysis is indeed not the "high-end atmosphere" part of investment and the core competitiveness of investment, otherwise, all senior accountants can become the God of stocks. However, financial analysis ability is a foundation and a common language in the investment world. Although there are various defects, at least so far, human beings have not invented a means that can reflect the overall business activities of an enterprise in a more detailed and comprehensive way than financial reports. Losing the ability to interpret the financial statements is equivalent to closing ...

The purpose of a finite game is to win, and the purpose of an infinite game is to continue

July 18, 2022

The purpose of a finite game is to win, and the purpose of an infinite game is to continue Some people regard marriage as a finite game: in case of contradiction, they must compete with each other, right or wrong, or even divorce. Because at this time, the two people just want to defeat each other, marriage becomes limited. But if marriage is regarded as an infinite game, its purpose is to continue. What both sides should do is how to make this relationship continue better and finally get happiness. Finite games are played within the boundary, while infinite games are played with the boundary, exploring and changing the boundary itself. The purpose of a finite game is to win, and the purpose of an infinite game is to continue.

The stock market follows a certain law of nature

July 17, 2022

the stock market follows a certain law of nature If the stock market has any eternal characteristics, then I think it is a cyclical movement. I even believe that periodicity is not only a feature of the stock market but also an important feature of the real economy and even the development of human society. One of the basic reasons for losing sense in the stock market is to forget the periodicity of the market. People are often in the cycle without knowing it, blinded and encouraged by the surface phenomena shown in the cycle, and believe that what they see will last forever. The stock market may be full of unpredictability, but at least in this regard, the stock market follows a certain law of nature. Just like the sun always rises in the darkest moment, and then illuminates the earth to bring light and warmth. With the approach of noon, the sun will also reach the cyclical peak of its operation in the maximum sunshine intensity, and begin to tilt downward and westward when peopl...

I would rather lose my clients than lose their money in investment

July 16, 2022

I would rather lose my clients than lose their money in investment I would rather lose my clients than lose their money. There is only one criterion for real investment, that is, whether it is creating real value and whether this value is beneficial to the overall prosperity of society. Zhang Lei, the author of this book, is the founder and CEO of Hillhouse capital. Hillhouse was founded in 2005. After 15 years of development and expansion, the fund management scale has increased from the US $ 20 million to RMB 500 billion, making it one of the largest investment institutions in Asia. Zhang Lei's personal wealth also reached 28billion yuan, ranking 178 in the Hurun China rich list in 2020. Hillhouse's annualized yield exceeded 40%, and it has invested in famous companies such as Tencent, jd.com, blue moon, qunar, pinduoduo, liangpin store, and Belle. In 1990, Zhang Lei was admitted to Renmin University of China majoring in international finance as the number one liberal studen...

Life is short, and the things that can be accomplished are limited

July 15, 2022

Life is short, and the things that can be accomplished are limited We all like Santa Claus when we were young because Santa Claus will meet our wishes, or at least pretend to promise to fulfill our wishes. However, even if we like Santa Claus so much, no one wants to become Santa Claus himself. Among all kinds of immortals, maybe some people want to be the Jade Emperor, some want to be the monkey king, and others want to be the pig Bajie, but few want to be Santa Claus. Because every year we have to meet everyone's wishes on time, hang up socks, and want to ask you for something, but no one cares what Santa Claus wants at all. If he is so busy in the distant snow country that he has a stroke, will half a child know and rush all the way to save him? What is there to yearn for in this kind of work strangled by others' wishes all day and strives to make everyone happy? Life is short, and the things that can be accomplished are limited. Your parent's expectations of you and yo...

Is there full marks life?

July 14, 2022

Is there full marks life? The school sets full marks as a model. Every exam paper we make from small to large determines whether we are recognized or belittled based on the distance between our score and full marks. When we grow up like this, we naturally think that there are full marks life, full marks work, full marks marriage, full marks family, and full marks interpersonal relationships in the world. No one even came to discuss with us how to judge whether to win or lose, so we accepted that life could be divided into winners and losers, victory group, and failure group.

Investment and enterprise management are both great learnings

July 13, 2022

Investment and enterprise management are both great learnings Investment and enterprise management are both great learnings, each with its own specialty. As an investor, the most important thing is not to act as various second-hand industry experts and consultants, but to measure whether the development situation of the enterprise is clear and understandable and the risk is controllable. This is just like the opposite, a good industrial management expert is not necessarily a successful securities investment, the two need different abilities. Of course, enterprises that are fully persuasive and support their own judgments are good investment targets. For companies that are vague, incomprehensible, and do not match their industry and business understanding, there is no need to put themselves in the position of general manager to assume, just give up. Since the growth prospect of the enterprise is a "future time", it is inevitable that there will be various opinions and opinion...

About sales distribution channels

July 12, 2022

About sales distribution channels Generally speaking, the higher the added value, the more complex the pre-sales and after-sales work, and the customers must continue to re-educate and explore the business, direct selling is the most appropriate. Although the initial stage is slow, the critical factor for the success of this business is to establish a strong influence on customers. In short, it is to "brainwash" customers. This complex and high-tech work channel is difficult to replace. And in the long term, the success or failure of this business does not depend on who achieved the scale effect through the channel first but on continuous innovation and the differentiation of value demands. Therefore, the temporary slowdown does not affect the long-term competitiveness of enterprises. On the contrary, this work is left to the distributor channel. The longer the time, the greater the hidden interest and the smaller the benefit. However, for businesses with low added value, a ...

The big customer and big order businesses mode

July 11, 2022

The big customer and big order businesses mode It's worth saying more about the big customer and big order businesses. It is very simple to identify whether it is a major customer category. First of all, it depends on the sales expense rate. Generally, those with very low sales expense rates either follow the distribution channels of major dealers or have a high concentration of downstream customers. Secondly, the annual report will disclose the proportion of the company's top five customers in sales, which is also very illustrative. Generally speaking, the sales volume of enterprises with the characteristics of key customers rises more rapidly, because there is no dead corner of coverage for a few limited key customers in its downstream. Once these big customers launch a big procurement plan, the sales volume of enterprises is easy to grow by leaps and bounds, which is the advantage of big customer enterprises. However, the disadvantages are also obvious. As the procurement o...

Is this an entrepreneur or a businessman?

July 10, 2022

Is this an entrepreneur or a businessman? When the leadership of an enterprise just stays at the level of "pursuing profits", you can hardly expect it to do some strategic measures that are beneficial in the long term but stressful in the short term. Such consequences are at the cost of the gradual loss of competitiveness under the cover of good-looking short-term statements. When observing an enterprise, I often weigh my mind: is this an entrepreneur or a businessman? The latter completely takes economic interests as the highest pursuit, so you can do whatever you want; The former takes "industrial ambition" as the supreme goal, pursues his inner ideal, and keeps improving for ten years. When enterprise leaders have generally entered the stage that wealth is only a number after listing, when wealth can no longer become the driving force of their struggle, in addition to dreams, why can we expect them to fight? Therefore, the most basic foundation for the long-ter...

Look ahead to the future and live in the present

July 08, 2022

Look ahead to the future and live in the present In short, what investors need to do is to "look ahead to the future and live in the present" -- not only strive to see the trajectory of future development, but also endure loneliness and calm down, and not pay for expensive tickets in advance for a wonderful future that is just a possibility. The fundamental analysis of enterprises must spread to three perspectives simultaneously, namely "the essence of market, the essence of the business, and the essence of investment". It will bring potential risks to investment analysis to only advocate any one of them and ignore the others. Understand the long-term development trend and final pattern of the industry from the essence of the market "supply and demand", and understand the fundamental decisive factors of the industry and the ability to produce differentiated competitive advantages from the essence of the business "competition", Then from the esse...

The essence of the market is supply and demand, the essence of business is competition, and the essence of investment is foresight.

July 07, 2022

The essence of the market is supply and demand, the essence of business is competition, and the essence of investment is foresight. First of all, what is the market? There is a "market" only when there is a buy and sell transaction. The so-called "price without market" is a typical empty quotation but is unable to reach a transaction. However, more frequent and large-scale transactions naturally form a relatively fixed "market". So the market is a link between buyers and sellers. The buyer represents the demander and the seller represents the supplier. The relationship between the two determines the transaction status of this market, so the core of the so-called market research is the research of supply and demand.

Serious investment behavior takes quite a long time to know the final result

July 06, 2022

Serious investment behavior takes quite a long time to know the final result In a long period of time, there will be successful speculators in the stock market, and there will inevitably be more successful investors, but there will be no successful gamblers. But why do people still enjoy it when they clearly know the result of losing nine out of ten bets? Psychologists have explained this through experiments on mice. In short, people (including rats) tend to get immediate rewards rather than delayed rewards. Gambling and investment behavior perfectly reflect the difference between the two in this attribute. Gambling can bring immediate results (whether losing or winning), while serious investment behavior takes quite a long time to know the final result.

The whole world is like a nail to those who hold a hammer

July 04, 2022

The whole world is like a nail to those who hold a hammer ● most of the time of investment is spent waiting. Whether it's waiting for long-term growth with the enterprise after buying or waiting for a more appropriate opportunity to intervene, it's all the same. Time is the basic condition for stewing "wealth and freedom". Can't wait to try to reduce the heat, from slow stewing to hot frying, fast or fast, but it's hard to say what you finally taste. ● 90% of people believe a thing not because it is true, but because they are willing to believe it. The highest level of manipulating the wisdom of the public is to make everyone who is manipulated feel wise. Munger said, "the whole world is like a nail to those who hold a hammer." Everyone lives in his own world. How well he fits the complete real-world depends on how hard it is to put down the hammer. ● in almost any profession, you will constantly meet people who are more professional and smarter tha...

Shirking responsibility is also a common situation in the stock market

July 04, 2022

Shirking responsibility is also a common situation in the stock market Shirking responsibility is also a common situation in the stock market. The typical performance is to complain about others, comfort yourself, never face up to the reasons for your failure, and always habitually look for external excuses. It is difficult for a person who does not know self-examination to grow and survive in the stock market. Psychologically, people naturally resist admitting their failure. Failure will bring pain, and finding someone else's excuse can alleviate this pain, which is actually very typical. But I fear most in the stock market are deceiving myself and others. Admitting that the reason for failure comes from my temporary frustration, but this behavior also brings hope for improvement. In fact, people don't need to lie to themselves. The market is also bustling, and no one will pay attention to your feelings and face. Overcoming this discomfort will eventually win real respect, an...

Long-term holding also has specific prerequisites

July 04, 2022

In my opinion, people who choose to hold for a long time are optimists in essence, although they may be very cautious on specific issues. Because a pessimist in essence cannot have any confidence and sense of security in the long-term future, nor can he hold the company for a long time. Of course, long-term holding also has specific prerequisites, which include not only the overall understanding of the overall social development environment but also the key business assumptions of specific investment objects. We will discuss these two aspects in detail later. Of course, investment cannot be separated from some elements of luck, but a person's ultimate height and wealth in investment must be highly correlated with his vision, breadth of mind, temperament, and pattern. From the point of view of mentality, only when you give up can you get something. He who wants to catch everything will eventually get nothing; In terms of the realm, investment is not faster and more energetic than w...

The differences between excellent investors and the losers

July 04, 2022

The differences between excellent investors and the losers One of the most obvious differences between those who have achieved excellent investment performance and the public losers is that successful investors spend most of their time observing and thinking, and only choose a few opportunities with high certainty and great returns once they win. They are rational and good at calculation, patient but full of action when the best situation occurs. On the contrary, the "vast majority of people" spend most of their time trading frequently and don't know what is the real good opportunity and how to usher in the most favorable situation. The best investment opportunity is wasted in this blind and arbitrary behavior.

How to become the 10% that finally wins in the stock market

July 01, 2022

How to become the 10% that finally wins in the stock market If you want to become the 10% that finally wins in the stock market, you must jump out of the vortex of emotion and control your rationality. Of course, the ability of emotion management has a specific relationship with investors' knowledge. Imagine a person who completely doesn't know what investment is, never understands the principles of correct investment, and doesn't figure out how to make profits in the end. How can he be rational? But in addition, I am more and more inclined to believe that investors who are good at self-control have some "unlearning" factors, which may be related not only to their innate personality but also to the values and ways of thinking they have developed for a long time. What if you really lack this self-control in character? I think the only way is to keep away from the market.

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