why is the long-term success of the investment very difficult ?

why is the long-term success of the investment very difficult?

There are three main participants in the investment: the market, the company, and ourselves. Here we know and can grasp only ourselves. The market is complex and changeable, but it is precisely because it gathers the public and eliminates the personalized factors, so the universal sense of human nature is the most reliable here, but this kind of performance only has the significance of judgment in extreme situations. The company is in the middle of the two. Its business status is highly analyzable, with great richness of business forms and uncertainty of future development. Investment is to identify the specific state of limited companies, analyze the safety margin of pricing given by the market, and try to keep their own calm and rational to make decisions.

This decision-making process is mixed with facts, speculation, rumors, reasoning, and other materials. We should not only approach the truth but also evaluate the relationship between the price and the truth. In addition, with the interference of negative emotions such as impetuosity, desire, fear, greed, and so on, the long-term success of the investment is very difficult.

Among the successful investors I have met, objectivity and rationality are the most common. As for the ability of logical thinking, the investment system and analysis methodology are very different. I mean, first, I don't think I have outstanding performance in logic and analysis. Second, I think that compared with the combination of infinite variables and extremely complex and rich business forms, personal thinking ability is difficult to cover and cope with. Excellent investors are not proud of their own abilities but first recognize their own limitations. Pride will make people difficult to be objective, and conceit will be far away from reason. As Munger said: I most want to know where I will die, so I will never go there.