Futurist

The reason why the stock market makes people irrational  For the vast majority of scams, whether people are cheated or not often does not depend on how skillful the swindlers are, but on how strong an unfulfilled desire in our hearts is. The liar is just a match. The deep-seated desire and appeal are a lot of dry straw, and the reason is the only firewall between the two. So the best liar is not to perform, but to induce your secret needs. The reason why the stock market makes people irrational is very similar. It is not difficult to predict the outcome of throwing the hungry desire into an environment full of myths and extremely free action. Therefore, self-emotion control can be summarized in two words, that is "rationality". The basic characteristics of rationality are that it is not easy to be impulsive, not affected by emotion, attaches importance to evidence and logic, and is not easy to be affected by external pressure and lose normal thinking and judgment. In my opini...

 In fact, there are different styles in the field of value investment, and there are obvious differences in the tendencies of famous investment masters on some specific issues. But almost all investment gurus will have two exactly the same advice: First, do not predict the market; Second, do not trade frequently. Forecasting the market and frequent trading are basically the most typical characteristics of ordinary shareholders. It can even be said that as long as these two foolish acts can be avoided, there is hope to defeat most people in the long run.

For investors, the most important thing is not the scope of the ability circle  Every investor who hopes to survive in the stock market for a long time should keep in mind Buffett's advice: "for investors, the most important thing is not the scope of the ability circle, but how you can determine the boundary of the ability circle. If you know the boundary of your ability circle, you will be much richer than those who do not know the boundary although the ability circle is five times larger than you.". In the investment community, we often see a lot of differences, such as whether to concentrate or diversify investment? Should we pay more attention to the ability of enterprises to create profits in the future, or the visible value of hard assets at present? In fact, there are successful people on these paths. The problem is not which path is perfect, but what is your ability tendency? When you really understand the advantages and limitations of each method and your own abi...

 Investment is a family financial arrangement worth considering. No matter how we have experienced the wind and rain, we will plant good seeds. Under careful protection and timely care, we will thrive. After waiting patiently, we will blossom and bear fruit, giving us the opportunity to live a healthy life and shelter future generations. Maybe many people don't think that this way can be stimulated by getting rich overnight. In fact, there are a few brilliant days in investment. Most of the time, they are lonely, dull or even depressed. We have seen the results of seeking stimulation. Like everyone else, we have experienced roller coaster ups and downs, which shows that we are all ordinary people. We don't even know whether tomorrow will be up or down, which disappoints the people who ask. But it doesn't matter. Life is like a marathon. It's what Walter said: whoever is alive will see.

We must pay attention to the "vast majority of people" in the stock market  Charlie Munger, the partner of investment master Buffett, once said: "I want to know where I will die, so I will never go there. "This interesting idea really has great enlightenment for investment. Most of the time, we think more about how to succeed than how to avoid failure. We have learned too many biographies of successful people standing at the top of the pyramid but turned a blind eye to a large but silent number of losers. There is a huge hidden danger: success may be the resonance of many factors and may contain some accidental factors, and failure often has more Many common factors and inevitability. So in the stock market, we must pay attention to the "vast majority of people". Their behavior heat is a pointer in the market; Their characteristics are that every successful investor needs to avoid; What they ignore is what investors should pay attention to; What they can...

It is a free choice to be an investor or a gambler in the stock market  Many people say that the stock market is like a casino. For many people, the stock market is indeed a casino. But in my opinion, casinos do not need "games" at all. Casinos are where gamblers go. Even a deck of playing cards and a few stones can be gambled. It is easier to gamble in the stock market, and various institutions have meticulously launched a variety of gambling tools in order to better serve "gamblers"; If stocks are not enough to play, then stock index futures. If convertible bonds and general funds are not enough to play, then leverage funds. If domestic funds are not enough to play, then open accounts in foreign markets. I often say: that it is a free choice to be an investor or a gambler. The stock market is a mirror: if you see inside information every day, you will become a news chaser; What you see every day is gambling, then you will become a gambler: what you see every day i...

There is no difference between those who study and those who do not in one day; The difference is also very small every month; Although the gap is obvious every year, it doesn't seem to matter; But every five years, it may have been a huge division of wealth. When we wait for 10 years, it may be an unreachable gap between one life and another... So let the dream start from the action at this moment.

What can really overcome short-term anxiety is confidence in your long-term investment philosophy Don't make decisions out of anxiety. Inflation is a wealth killer in the long run, but it is not so terrible in the short term, such as 1-2 years. However, losing 30% in one year is easy due to investment mistakes and hasty decisions. Of course, it is really difficult to overcome anxiety and remain rational and calm. But if it is not difficult, if there is no strong emotional barrier, where will the excess return come from? Finally, frankly speaking, what can really overcome short-term anxiety is confidence in your long-term investment philosophy. If you have a set of investment methodology and practical experience that are sure to overcome the market in the long run, you will naturally greatly reduce your short-term anxiety. But we can't get this from others. We can only grow by ourselves. This is what I said. What is the most expensive price? No learning. As I said seven years ag...

 Talk about financial freedom In fact, not long ago, I posted a Weibo about the main differences in different financial stages, saying that after reaching the middle level, there is little difference between the daily material life of people with financial freedom and that of people with financial freedom. For example, my daily consumption is also very ordinary. There should be no obvious difference between my friends with an annual salary of hundreds of thousands of yuan and me in these aspects. The only higher expenditure is tourism. What is the main difference? One is time, and the other is psychological security. Therefore, wealth freedom does not mean a more luxurious life (if you take this as the goal, you will live more tired, because the appreciation of wealth will never keep pace with the expansion of desire), but the ability to freely control time and free choice, which will bring a sense of psychological security. This sense of security will have a subtle positive impact...

Impossible Triangle in investment  In the investment, the extremely high yield, extremely low risk, and extremely strong sustainability constitute an "Impossible Triangle". Most people spend their lives chasing the first, which usually leads to an uncertain result at the cost of definitely destroying the second and third. In fact, there are many uncontrollable elements of luck in Article 1. The combination of Article 2 and Article 3 is the foundation of compound interest and can be actively grasped from the perspective of the system. What's more, doing well in these two articles will not hinder the arrival of luck. Understanding the connotation of this impossible triangle can improve the probability of successful investment. To some extent, we are all trend investors. The top-level trend is called the times, the lower level trend is the economic cycle, and the lower level is the company's business rhythm. It is a real big opportunity to find the resonance point betwee...

Investment is used to make life better and fuller  I always think that investment is used to make life better and fuller. Making money is just a passing thing. Therefore, I have very few fixed working hours in my daily life (a large amount of time will be invested periodically in special periods, such as finding a good company or a big opportunity in the market). A lot of time is used for traveling, walking, reading, watching movies, accompanying family members, and all kinds of casual pastimes. I think for people who are basically mature in investment, the marginal contribution of effort to investment performance is not strong (it is very strong for newcomers). The most important thing is to maintain high-quality thinking and long-term physical and mental health. In the final analysis, making money is only a means, not an end. There is a saying I agree with very much: the only success in life is to spend this life with the people you like in the way you like. Everything else is no...

Financial assets will become the main way to improve household assets in the future  From the perspective of large categories of assets, it is very clear that financial assets will become the main way to improve household assets in the future. If we still can't understand this general trend, we will be as upset as those who haven't bought a house in the past ten years. But you are right. The tide of financial investment is very different from that of real estate. The golden years of real estate are basically earned as long as you get on the bus. However, the performance of a financial investment can open a long echelon in the same decade, and many of them may have mediocre returns. This is related to the difference in the nature of the two types of assets. The property has a relatively small degree of differentiation, and the transaction cycle is extremely long, which is also the largest consumer expenditure of the family. Subjectively, everyone will carefully choose and hold i...

读书笔记《鱼什么都知道》鱼的记忆真的只有七秒吗？   《鱼什么都知道》作者乔纳森·巴尔科姆，是美国著名的动物行为学家。本书前所未有地为鱼类代言，一上市就斩获美国亚马逊2016年年度好书，《福布斯》生物科学类十佳读物，《自然》十佳科普读物好评如潮。 全书内容大致分为三个部分，使人类重新认识水下族群： 第一部分 鱼的智商和情商： 判断物种智商有一个简单的指标：看大脑重量占体重的比例。脑比重越大，大脑获得的能量就越多，也就越发达。但这个指标并非硬性标准，它对鱼类来说就是不适用的，因为水的浮力抵消了重力的作用，鱼根本就没有体重的困扰。智力并非只是由大脑生理结构所决定，而是由动物在日常生活中，面临的种种生存需求塑造出来的。比如，深虾虎鱼为了躲避水洼中的鸟类天敌，就具有空间记忆的本领，能在满潮时记住低洼地势的分布，在头脑中绘制逃生地图。 鱼不仅具有生存智慧，还会后天学习。在两盘食物面前，裂唇鱼能在45次试验内，学会先吃会被拿走的一盘食物，表现远远好于卷尾猴、红猩猩、黑猩猩，甚至4岁儿童。除此之外，鱼还会使用工具。鞍斑猪齿鱼会利用岩石，摔碎蛤蜊壳来吃掉蛤蜊肉。它的智商在鱼类中的地位，相当于灵长类动物在哺乳动物中的地位。 鱼类不仅有智商，还有情商，能形成类似社会契约似的的关系。清洁鱼为其他鱼类吃掉寄生虫、死皮、藻类，平均每天服务2000多条鱼类，但这种服务关系不是随机的，每一条清洁鱼心里都会储存一份数据库，记住每次的服务情况。客户也会为每一条清洁鱼打分，并首选诚实的清洁鱼为自己服务。鱼作为社交动物还能与人类建立友谊。 第二部分 鱼的感官和感觉： 鱼的眼球视野范围超大。四眼鱼每只眼睛可以实现，上下分别拥有空气视觉和水中视觉。海马、比目鱼两只眼睛，则能同时朝不同方向转动。鱼的听力非常灵敏，某些鱼类能听到低于1赫兹的环境次声。鱼的嗅觉几乎是人的五百倍，美洲鳗鲡可以通过追寻家乡的气味，不远万里回到产卵地。伯氏剑尾鱼通过频繁小便，释放气味来吸引异性。鱼的味蕾也十分灵敏，斑点叉尾鮰有68万个味蕾遍布全身。有些鱼还会挑食。除了人类有的感觉器官外，鱼还有我们体验不到的感知能力，比如鲑鱼细胞内含磁极晶体，可以感受地球磁场进行定位导航。 鱼会感受到疼吗？有些科学家认为，必须拥有大脑新皮质，才能拥有感知疼痛的能力，而新皮质是大脑最晚进化出的部分，只有哺乳动物才有。鱼没有新皮质，是否就感受不到疼呢...

why is the long-term success of the investment very difficult? There are three main participants in the investment: the market, the company, and ourselves. Here we know and can grasp only ourselves. The market is complex and changeable, but it is precisely because it gathers the public and eliminates the personalized factors, so the universal sense of human nature is the most reliable here, but this kind of performance only has the significance of judgment in extreme situations. The company is in the middle of the two. Its business status is highly analyzable, with great richness of business forms and uncertainty of future development. Investment is to identify the specific state of limited companies, analyze the safety margin of pricing given by the market, and try to keep their own calm and rational to make decisions. This decision-making process is mixed with facts, speculation, rumors, reasoning, and other materials. We should not only approach the truth but also evaluate the relat...

The return rate of equity assets is the highest and far ahead  According to the long-term statistics of the United States and other developed countries, among the long-term return rates of all major categories of assets, the return rate of equity assets is the highest and far ahead. Even in the past 20 years or so, even in shares, you will find that the return on investment is not lower than the increase in house prices (of course, there is no leverage) - in fact, if you ask about the performance of outstanding professional investors in the past decade or so, few of them are less than 50 times that in the past decade or so, If you don't have 100 times of income, you probably don't dare to give yourself more than 85 points (even if Beijing bought a house at the bottom of more than 3000 yuan in 2000 and now it's 100000 yuan, the increase is only 33 times. Of course, leverage is a natural advantage). However, there is a big difference between this data and everyone's perce...

The simplest thing in investment  Qiu Guolu's the simplest thing in investment is an impressive book on investment and financial management that he has read in recent years, in which the framework of value investment and reverse investment is the most profound. The book is divided into five chapters: investment philosophy, investment method, investment risk, investment strategy, and investment psychology The simplest thing in investment shares a simple investment method. According to the author Qiu Guolu, stock market investment is not complicated. It is to do one thing well: find a good company with a cheap share price. This can be divided into two steps: The first step is to find a good company; The second step is to buy it at a cheap price. First step: find a good company. Qiu Guolu has two strategies. The first is to find companies in good industries. His favorite industry has three characteristics. First, the threshold is high. Not everyone in this industry can participate. In...

Until your ability makes you confident that you will win, you will not pay attention to psychological problems  Most people will think that this is some kind of psychological problem, such as pressure resistance, anxiety, worrying about gains and losses, weak self-control, etc., so people often seek psychological help: can you give me some secrets or good ways to make my mind strong? No longer suffering from the market? However, this is not the essence of the problem. As early as five years ago, I said that the so-called difficulty of the integration of knowledge and action, the difficulty of "action" is only an appearance, fundamentally speaking, the "knowledge" is far from being in place. As an example, imagine that you have never received parachute jumping training. Now you are allowed to jump from a high altitude. Do you think there is any secret to relaxing? The answer is: No. Because you know it's not a psychological problem, it's a technical problem. ...

 Reading notes [The Road To Financial Freedom: Earn Your First Million in Seven Years]  1. thinking before listening Why are many people in the world unable to achieve financial freedom? If you want to succeed, what should you do first? How to double the income within three years? They all say they want to save money, so what about the mortgage? How can inflation break? 2. essence notes Financial Freedom: Making your first million in seven years is a world-renowned classic financial work. The author Bodo Sheffer is a famous German financial expert, known as "European Buffett". His works "road to financial freedom", "dog money" and "winner's rule" are well known in Europe and America, with sales of more than ten million copies. The road to financial freedom is divided into two parts. The first part is the basic principles and the second part is the practical guide. In the first part, the book answers the question: Why are many people unable to...

The relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the trend of the stock market  Is there any relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the trend of the stock market? There must be, and there must be a significant connection. Unfortunately, it is still a world-class problem to guide or predict the operation of the stock market with various macro indicators, especially the accurate operation. How difficult is it? I suggest you look at the biography of Keynes. As one of the greatest economists in history, Keynes almost couldn't turn over in stock market investment. We can think about why? Back to the topic. The most important link index between the macroeconomy and the stock market is the interest rate, because it is not only the monetary refraction of the macro-economy but also directly affects the discount rate of the stock market. Theoretically, the higher the interest rate, the lower the valuation of high-risk assets such as the stock market. Therefore, there is a say...

Why do some people succeed and others fail in the same market?  Financial statements are just one of the tools we use to understand the company. In addition, what is equally important or even more important is the logic of its business, including the logic of supply and demand in the external market, the product structure and strategy of the internal company, as well as the structure of costs and profits. Finance is only a result, and the source is the operation itself. If you understand its business nature and future, in fact, the periodic financial deviation is not a big problem. Moreover, the financial adjustment skills within a certain range are completely legal and often reasonable. So you see, financial statements are not omnipotent, but at least they are a common language in investment. You can be cautious and cooperate with other tools to analyze the company, but if you simply adopt the attitude of avoiding the financial statements based on the "cheaters" in the marke...

认知盈余:自由时间的力量》是马化腾推荐的一本书，《认知盈余》可以说是《未来是湿的》一书的续篇。《未来是湿的》关注的是社会化媒体的影响；而《认知盈余》的核心主题是，随着在线工具促进了更多的协作，人们该怎样学会更加建设性地利用自由时间也即闲暇，来从事创造性活动而不仅仅是消费。用舍基自己的话来说：“本书从上一本书遗留的地方开始，观察人类的联网如何让我们将自由时间看待成一种共享的全球性资源，并通过设计新的参与及分享方式来利用它们。”该书进而分析了这些崭新的文化生产形式背后的路径和动机，它们无一例外地与人类的表达相关。  《认知盈余》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/23028.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/6166617/dd8d75 《将心注入》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17240.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11644289/c111f1 《理想丰满》  link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/19942.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7246132/f507a4 《恶意》     link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/zhentantuili/145247692116775.html     link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731866/00cd8e 《跌荡一百年》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/guanlixuexi/144175874215970.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5009918/5d78b1 《技术的本质》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/23035.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11954866/80395b 《超级魔术记忆法》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/2119...

  这是一部霍华德·舒尔茨与星巴克的真实奋斗史。舒尔茨和一群热爱咖啡的人从西雅图开始，从此与咖啡签下生死契约，坚守激情、信念与尊严，将鲜明的价值观融入星巴克。几十年来，他们共同判断是非、克服困难，并在企业发展的重要时刻完成自我颠覆和自我更新。 《将心注入》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17240.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11644289/c111f1 《理想丰满》  link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/19942.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7246132/f507a4 《恶意》     link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/zhentantuili/145247692116775.html     link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731866/00cd8e 《跌荡一百年》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/guanlixuexi/144175874215970.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5009918/5d78b1 《技术的本质》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/23035.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11954866/80395b 《超级魔术记忆法》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/21191.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7227691/adc0d4 《被讨厌的勇气》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17058.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731855/78d35a 《硅谷钢铁侠》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17105.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib...

  Here I tell you what is value investing  Value investment needs to be understood through long-term and arduous study, a large amount of compound knowledge is understood, and its own rigorous methodology is gradually formed. It is not the thinking that can be established by reading a few boastful "Chicken Soup for the soul". To tell the truth, I think the threshold of value investing is really high, and there are high requirements for IQ, thinking mode, temperament, and acting ability. Value investment is just an idea and systematic method. Its purpose is to enable people to make sustainable profits with a high probability on the premise of effective risk control. There are many keywords in this sentence, such as effective risk control, high probability, and continuous profit, but it never guarantees that you can make a quick profit. Buying blue-chip shares make profits, holding them for a long time makes profits, and always makes more profits than others. These are all crea...

It's hard for you to make a fortune against the trend, and it's easy for you to go bankrupt against the mean regression  In fact, many major asset risks are not so difficult to identify, and some are even obvious (such as the stock market in mid-2015). But the difficulty is that we still don't know when it will return. Even at the end of the bull market, its rise is the most violent, which is often enough to destroy the rationality of the vast majority of people. Many people earn more than you every day. Are you depressed? So this problem needs to be solved from the perspective of strategy and human nature. From a strategic point of view, the bull market foam period is the period with the strongest increase, but it is also very risky. In fact, this part of the money is not easy to earn. The best period to make money is from the bottom of the bear market to the beginning of the bull market, which is what I call the "making big money" stage. This stage must not be m...

《理想丰满》是企业家冯仑自《野蛮生长》后亲笔撰写的又一力作。究竟怎样的房地产，才是对的生意？究竟怎样的社会，才会给力民营企业？究竟怎样的人生，才能创造生命的价值？ 当今中国，迷惑颇多——中国人价值观严重丢失，该如何重塑？收入差距日趋严峻，怎样才能确保社会的公平？公司遭遇政策挑战，发展限于瓶颈，该如何突破？社会财富将会如何传承？同根同种，台湾人幸福指数为何比大陆高？当理想丰满但现实骨感，怎样怎样规划才能让自己更幸福？ 《理想丰满》  link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/19942.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7246132/f507a4 《恶意》     link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/zhentantuili/145247692116775.html     link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731866/00cd8e 《跌荡一百年》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/guanlixuexi/144175874215970.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5009918/5d78b1 《技术的本质》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/23035.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11954866/80395b 《超级魔术记忆法》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/21191.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7227691/adc0d4 《被讨厌的勇气》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17058.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731855/78d35a 《硅谷钢铁侠》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17105.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/6200944/e1b...

《惡意》是東野圭吾挑戰寫作極限的長篇傑作，與《白夜行》《嫌疑人X的獻身》《解憂雜貨店》並稱東野圭吾四大傑作。 《惡意》深刻揭示人性，故事中無邊的惡意深不見底，有如萬丈深淵，讓人不寒而栗。   《恶意》     link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/zhentantuili/145247692116775.html     link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731866/00cd8e 《跌荡一百年》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/guanlixuexi/144175874215970.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5009918/5d78b1 《技术的本质》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/23035.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/11954866/80395b 《超级魔术记忆法》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/21191.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/7227691/adc0d4 《被讨厌的勇气》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17058.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/5731855/78d35a 《硅谷钢铁侠》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17105.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/6200944/e1b074 《奥马哈之雾》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/19789.html link2:  https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/12002006/034777 《刻意练习》 link1: https://www.iamtxt.com/ebook/17372.html link2: https://zh.hk1lib.org/book/6185507/92d715 ...